How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.